Bitcoin Faces Pressure Below $80K: A Crucial Support Zone or a Precursor to Further Decline?
Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship digital currency, has been under substantial stress in the last several weeks, presently positioned around 30% below its all-time high (ATH).
Yet, amid a market that seems to be continuously slumping, there are emerging signs of demand, particularly within the $76,000–$85,000 range. The question is, can this support level hold? Or, are there more downside risks to consider?
As the market absorbs these price shifts, there are several factors that keep contributing to the relentless volatility. First, it is important to note that the profit and loss ratio has taken a nosedive and is now well below the key level of 1.0. This was a drop that I had signaled as potentially significant a few weeks back. A P/L ratio below 1.0 is indicative of less pressure to sell; it doesn’t mean that no one is selling. It does mean that the market has been set up. When it was selling, it was just doing what it does: making the weak hands weaker and the strong hands stronger.
Demand Emerges in the $76K–$85K Range: A Crucial Support Zone
The price of Bitcoin has been experiencing a lot of ups and downs lately, and now it’s sitting well under its all-time high of close to $69,000. This downward trend has shaken some investors and pushed the crypto market into a period of uncertainty. Nevertheless, despite the recent downturn, demand is notably kicking in at around $66,000 to $85,000. This range has become very important for traders because key technical indicators are starting to give off some positive signs.
A major sign of seller exhaustion comes from the Realized P/L Ratio, which gauges the balance of profits and losses that have been realized in the market. If we were to look at it right now, it would look like ratio has dropped below 1.0. If this ratio was plotted over time, the recent readings would be the lowest they have been since the all-time highs in late 2021. This signals a pretty significant and extended state of seller exhaustion. Fewer and fewer investors are willing to sell at a loss, which means the dynamic of selling pressure versus buying pressure is shifting in the favor of the buyers.
Although we’ve seen a couple of weeks of relief rallies, the question is whether the market has enough momentum to hold above all of these support levels. Sentiment in the market right now is cautious. Investors are trying to gauge whether we’re going to see further downside action or if we’re on the verge of a bullish rebound. These next few weeks are going to be critical in determining whether Bitcoin reclaims its former highs or contemplates even lower prices for a bit.
On-Chain Data Signals Profit-Taking and Shifting Market Sentiment
Another key indicator to assess is the movement of long-term Bitcoin holders. On April 3, over 1,058 BTC were moved by long-term holders—coins that have been held for long stretches, and that typically are moved when the holder is taking profits. This is an indication that some long-term Bitcoin investors might be using this currently upward price movement to sell for profits—especially when you consider that Bitcoin price recently pulled back significantly from its all-time high.
Moreover, the flow of these aged coins into the marketplace prompts the question of whether we’re witnessing an immense change in investor sentiment. Long-term holders typically act as the stalwart underpinnings of market stability, and when they start to sell, it can be a sign of caution. These holders are, after all, moving a pretty substantial amount of BTC, which could be indicative of some portion of the long-term holder base preparing for a more significant downtrend and potentially fearing further price declines for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin ETFs See Significant Outflows, But BlackRock’s IBIT Defies Trend
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have steadily gained in popularity as a way for mainstream investors to access Bitcoin. But lately, Bitcoin ETFs have taken on a new mantle, and that’s as a proxy for Bitcoin itself. With investor sentiment around Bitcoin seemingly in a holding pattern, ETFs have become the next best way to index Bitcoin—or at least the performance of Bitcoin-related products.
In an interesting turn, one Bitcoin ETF went against the overall trend: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), which saw net inflows. Seen as one of the most prominent, institutionally-backed Bitcoin ETFs, the inflows into BlackRock’s fund stand in stark contrast to the wider market outflows. In fact, IBIT is the only Bitcoin ETF to have seen net inflows over the last few months. Given the general direction of the market, it’s hard to imagine just who is putting money into this fund, and for what reason it might be doing so.
The Road Ahead: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $90K and Resume the Bull Run?
As we look to the future, one vital price point that Bitcoin must reclaim is the realized price of short-term holders, right now at $90,570. This price level is crucial because it marks the average price at which short-term holders bought their Bitcoin. In the past, when Bitcoin’s price has moved above this level, it’s typically signaled the start of a more sustained uptrend. If Bitcoin can push through this price point, it might mean that the bull market is back and that buying interest is ramping up.
The route to recovering $90K may not be smooth. With yoy (year over year) holders taking profit and ETF outflows indicating a nervousness from institutional investors, Bitcoin has some hurdles to clear to make it past this resistance. Long-term investing still looks probable from a historical perspective.
The first signal that #Bitcoin $BTC is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570! pic.twitter.com/nkdsG8AcGX
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 4, 2025
In the recent short term, though, the buying pressure at key support levels seems crucial. If it doesn’t hold up, Bitcoin and all altcoins could see further corrections.
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Ready to Resurface?
At the moment, Bitcoin’s price is at a crucial juncture. There is demand in the $76,000–$85,000 range that could potentially support a price rebound. Whether that support holds or gives way to a more substantial correction is still an open question. Nevertheless, it is clear that the demand zone we are currently price testing will set the stage for a potential bull moment or a bear drop to lower price levels. Meanwhile, the situation is further complicated by the dawn of the profit-taking moment for long-term holders.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any Metaverse crypto coins.
